AGP Executive Report

Regional Diplomacy: Turkish and Armenian ministers discussed direct trade, including transport and inspection procedures, as both sides signal fresh momentum toward normalisation. Iraq Ties: Ankara welcomed Iraq’s new cabinet and said it wants closer cooperation on energy, water, security and the Development Road project. Election Watch: An Erdoğan adviser has pointed to March or April 2028 for elections, potentially giving the president a path to seek another term. Media Freedom: Authorities seized control of opposition-aligned broadcaster Halk TV after a police raid halted its broadcasts; press freedom groups condemned the move. Alliance Strains: A dispute over Azerbaijan’s school headscarf rules has tested ties with Türkiye, though Ankara says the differences can be resolved. Defence: The 2027 budget proposal raises allocations for weapons and equipment purchases by 229%, while total defence spending is set at 2.206 trillion lira. Public Safety: Istanbul floods killed at least four people, with searches continuing for those missing.

Election Watch: President Erdoğan’s adviser says Turkey is likely to hold elections in March or April 2028, ahead of schedule and potentially allowing Erdoğan to seek another term under a constitutional provision. Media and Opposition: Authorities took control of opposition-aligned Halk TV after a police raid, as journalists and opposition figures face scrutiny in a widening fund scandal. Foreign Policy: Erdoğan and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet agreed to deepen ties, including through a new military cooperation framework. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan also met China’s Wang Yi in Baku to discuss bilateral cooperation. Istanbul Floods: The city’s worst flooding in decades has killed four people, displaced thousands and forced schools to close. Cyprus: Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş said any settlement must recognize Turkish Cypriots as equal participants.

Media and Politics: Authorities seized control of opposition broadcaster Halk TV after a police raid, halting live broadcasts and drawing calls for the trustee’s removal. Reports say an early 2028 election is being considered to enable Erdoğan to run again. Black Sea Security: Drone strikes on vessels near Romania and Bulgaria have prompted NATO discussions; a joint regional command involving Türkiye has been proposed. Eastern Mediterranean: French contractor Nexans has sought permission to resume surveys for a Greece–Cyprus power cable. Ankara says part of the route crosses its claimed continental shelf and requires its consent, reviving the risk of maritime tensions. Regional Ties: Türkiye and Azerbaijan are publicly playing down their dispute over school hijab restrictions, but the row is testing their alliance. Fund Repayments: A parliamentary committee approved a bill prioritizing small investors for interim payments as authorities pursue asset recovery. Istanbul Floods: Three people died in record rainfall, prompting evacuations and emergency response across the city.

Istanbul Floods: Record rainfall killed at least two people and forced hundreds from danger as the city mobilized emergency crews and closed schools. Election Politics: Erdoğan’s legal adviser says the 2028 election may be moved to March or April, potentially opening a path for the president to seek another term. Press Freedom: Authorities raided opposition broadcaster Halk TV, halted live broadcasts and appointed a trustee; 11 people were arrested. Black Sea Security: Drone attacks on ships near Romania left sailors missing and prompted NATO discussions, raising risks for shipping close to Türkiye’s region. EU Trade Ties: Ankara urged the EU to include Türkiye in its “Made in Europe” industrial plan, warning that exclusion could hurt trade, jobs and production. Rights Ruling: The European Court of Human Rights found Türkiye violated the rights of 26 people held pending trial over alleged Gülen links.

Istanbul Floods: Torrential rain killed two people, flooded homes and roads, and stranded workers overnight. Authorities closed schools and urged residents to avoid nonessential travel. Press Freedom: Police raided Halk TV, halted its broadcasts and installed a trustee at the pro-opposition channel, prompting fresh alarm over pressure on the media. Fund Scandal: A parliamentary committee approved interim repayments of up to 1 million lira for investors in liquidated funds, but Erdoğan’s party and its ally blocked an inquiry into the scandal. Regional Security: Romania proposed a joint NATO Black Sea command, with Turkey’s coast considered as a temporary base, as suspected drone attacks threaten shipping. Foreign Policy: Ankara is pushing to reset EU trade ties, while Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan is in Baku for a regional security summit.

Media Crackdown: Authorities raided Halk TV, halted broadcasts and appointed a trustee during a corruption probe; 11 people were detained. Opposition figures and press freedom groups called the move an attack on independent media. Turkey’s Workers’ Party also says access to its X accounts has been ordered blocked. Fund Scandal: Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek authorized prosecutors to investigate former capital markets chief İbrahim Ömer Gönül. The crisis has affected more than 455,000 investors, with funds holding about $17 billion placed into liquidation. Regional Security: Erdoğan condemned Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia as Turkey and Pakistan pledged support under their mutual defence pact. Turkish forces are expected to play a supporting role, including reconnaissance, while Saudi forces handle combat. Defence Ties: Ankara and Madrid plan to develop a joint version of Türkiye’s Hürjet trainer, as Turkish defence exports have already topped $7.4 billion this year.

Media Freedom: Police raided opposition-aligned Halk TV in Istanbul, halted live broadcasts and installed a trustee. Authorities cite a corruption investigation; opposition figures and press groups call it an effort to silence critical coverage. Opposition Pressure: Police also detained 25 people in fresh raids on an opposition-run Ankara municipality, as the ruling party sued journalists and an opposition spokesman over a financial scandal. Regional Security: President Erdoğan condemned Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and reaffirmed Ankara’s support for Riyadh. He says the Mecca defence pact will go to parliament within days, while Turkey has ruled out sending troops for offensive operations. Peace Process: The PKK’s withdrawal from four bases in northern Iraq is a significant step as Turkey’s peace process continues. EU Ties: Ankara is seeking inclusion in the EU’s proposed “Made in EU” rules, while Turkish business leaders urged Italy to support renewed EU accession talks.

Yemen and Riyadh: Donald Trump says he may ask President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to help counter Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. Erdoğan has condemned the strikes and backed Riyadh, while Ankara says it will not send troops for offensive operations under the Mecca defense pact, which Erdoğan plans to submit to parliament. Black Sea Security: After two merchant ships were hit, Türkiye’s defense minister joined Bulgarian and Romanian counterparts in calling for stronger surveillance, intelligence-sharing and coordination to protect shipping. Domestic Pressure: Türkiye says it aims to settle about half the funds caught in last month’s market turmoil this week. Separately, police detained 25 people, including two deputy mayors, in a probe involving an opposition-run Ankara municipality; journalists have also faced arrests over fund-crisis reporting. Peace Process and Rights: A visiting Council of Europe delegation met the DEM Party to discuss Kurdish leader Abdullah Öcalan’s role in the peace process and raised unimplemented European human-rights court rulings involving imprisoned politicians and activist Osman Kavala.

PKK Peace Process: The PKK has withdrawn from four bases in northern Iraq, a step Ankara links to its “terror-free Türkiye” initiative. Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş says legal measures depend on verified disarmament, and calls for stronger rule-of-law standards. Syria Policy: Erdoğan says Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin urged him to meet SDF commander Mazloum Abdi; he refused, underscoring Ankara’s hard line toward the Kurdish-led force. Saudi Defence Pact: Erdoğan condemned Houthi attacks on Riyadh and said the Mecca agreement will go to parliament within days. Turkish officials have ruled out sending troops for offensive operations. Digital Rights: Turkey’s planned social media age limit of 15, due to take effect in November, faces scrutiny alongside rights groups’ calls for an end to account blocks and online censorship.

Kurdish Peace Process: Turkish state media confirmed the PKK withdrew from four positions in northern Iraq, calling it a historic step. The group says Ankara has yet to take meaningful steps toward lasting peace; an MHP deputy expects results by November. Saudi Defence Pact: Erdoğan condemned Houthi attacks on Riyadh and said the Türkiye–Saudi Arabia–Pakistan agreement will go to parliament soon. Ankara has ruled out offensive troop deployments under the pact. Fund Crisis: Erdoğan said repayments of up to 1 million lira could begin this month if parliament passes the required bill. Investigators have taken legal action against 282 people, as scrutiny of the scandal continues. Online Rights: Türkiye’s under-15 social media ban is due to take effect November 1, while rights groups are urging platforms to resist government orders to block accounts amid a wider censorship dispute.

Cabinet Agenda: Erdoğan is due to chair a meeting on fund repayments, the 2027 budget and inflation, with ministers also expected to discuss the government’s “terror-free Türkiye” initiative and the PKK disarmament process. Online Freedoms: Human rights groups say authorities ordered access blocked to at least 1,270 X accounts in September, reaching a combined 35 million followers, and are urging Ankara to halt restrictions they say violate free-expression rights. Kurdish Process: Kurdish politicians say disarmament alone cannot resolve the conflict, calling for legal reforms and political and cultural rights; another assessment says the government is tightly controlling the process and moving slowly. Regional Security: Türkiye joined Pakistan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia in condemning Houthi strikes on Riyadh airport. The attacks test Ankara’s commitments under its defence pact with Riyadh, though Türkiye has ruled out an offensive role in Yemen. Digital Policy: A law barring under-15s from social media is set to take effect on Nov. 1, requiring platforms to verify users’ ages.

Regional Security: Ankara condemned repeated Houthi strikes on Riyadh airport, where Saturday’s attack killed at least 12 and injured hundreds. Turkey has ruled out sending troops for offensive operations under its Saudi defence pact, while weighing defensive support. Cyprus Dispute: Turkey initially left the Cypriot president off its COP31 leaders’ invitation list, but reversed course after pressure from Brussels, exposing fresh friction with the EU ahead of the Antalya summit. Digital Rules: New regulations bar social media platforms from serving under-15s from Nov. 1 and require age checks, while imposing tighter privacy and safety settings for teenagers. Domestic Politics: The peace process remains in focus as opposition leader Devlet Bahçeli says jailed PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan should play a key role, amid Kurdish calls for legal steps and reports of opposition mayors facing arrest.

Regional Security: A Houthi attack on Riyadh’s airport killed 12 people and injured 309, Saudi Arabia says. Ankara condemned the strike as the Saudi-led coalition vowed a response, putting Turkey’s commitments under its Mecca defense pact with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan in focus. Peace Process: MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli said Türkiye’s anti-terror initiative is now state policy and urged the relevant institutions to begin work. He again called for jailed PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan to take a coordination role. Digital Rules: Turkey’s ban on social media for under-15s takes effect Nov. 1. Platforms must verify users’ ages and block underage accounts. Opposition and Press: A report says 40 CHP mayors have been arrested since the 2024 local elections, with some municipalities placed under government-appointed trustees. Separately, two journalists were jailed pending trial and two placed under house arrest over reporting on an investment-fund scandal. Regional Diplomacy: Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met a Hamas delegation in Ankara; no agenda or agreement was made public.

Child Online Safety: Türkiye published a ban on social media for under-15s, effective Nov. 1, requiring platforms to verify users’ ages. The move comes as rights groups raise concerns over restrictions on online speech. Fund Scandal: Authorities detained two journalists over posts about a troubled investment fund. Investigators say 214 people and firms made about $3.8 billion, while Erdoğan’s ruling party and its ally blocked five bids to investigate. Rights & Accountability: The EU says Türkiye’s rights crackdown is widening the gap with membership. Separately, prosecutors are pursuing 45 people over an Ankara NATO summit protest, as lawyers mark 11 years since the Ankara bombing and demand accountability. Regional Diplomacy: Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met Hamas representatives in Ankara. Türkiye condemned Houthi attacks on Saudi airports but said it would not send troops to fight other countries under the Mecca pact.

Digital Rules: Türkiye’s new rules bar social-media accounts for children under 15 from Nov. 1, with age checks through e-Devlet and privacy limits for users aged 15–17. Gaza Diplomacy: Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met Hamas political bureau chief Khalil al-Hayya in Ankara; no details of the talks were released. Regional Security: Fidan says the Mecca pact is defensive and Türkiye will not send troops abroad for offensive operations. Ankara is preparing to submit the pact to parliament as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia intensify. Fund Scandal: A bill would allow about 350,000 investors in funds under liquidation to receive advance payments capped at 1 million liras, with no public money used. The scandal has also led to journalists being detained and opposition efforts to investigate blocked. Rights and Infrastructure: The EU says Türkiye’s rights record is widening the gap with membership, as authorities face criticism over pressure on journalists and opposition figures. Separately, the Oruç Reis is surveying a proposed gas pipeline route linking Türkiye and Turkish Cyprus, with operations targeted for 2028.

Fund Scandal: A probe says 214 people and companies made about $3.8 billion from troubled Turkish investment funds. The ruling party and its ally blocked five bids to investigate, while two journalists were detained over coverage and a minister filed complaints against MPs. Syria and Security: Intelligence chief İbrahim Kalın and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met Syria’s foreign minister in Ankara, with discussions including integration of the Kurdish-led SDF. Black Sea: Turkey has proposed separate routes for Russian and Ukrainian civilian ships to reduce attacks on merchant vessels; neither side has given a clear response. Saudi Pact: Ankara says it will consider defensive support for Saudi Arabia under the Makkah pact but rules out sending troops for offensive operations against Yemen’s Houthis. Peace Process: DEM Party spokesperson Ayşegül Doğan called for accelerating the peace process and making legal changes, as Kurdish groups renewed calls for Abdullah Öcalan’s freedom. EU Relations: The European Union says Turkey’s rights crackdown is widening the gap with membership, citing concerns over democratic standards.