AGP Executive Report

Iran Diplomacy: Turkey’s intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin joined Saudi and Pakistani officials in Tehran for talks aimed at easing regional tensions and averting renewed war with Iran. Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia add urgency to the effort. Eastern Mediterranean: Ankara issued a NAVTEX for seabed surveys linked to a planned gas pipeline to Cyprus. The U.S. called the Turkey-Libya maritime deal “unconstructive and provocative,” as Greece and Cyprus continue to oppose it. Government Agenda: Erdoğan’s Cabinet is set to review interim payments for investors in troubled funds, the PKK disarmament process, the Mecca defense pact and the Libya agreement. Press Freedom: Thousands protested in Istanbul and Ankara over journalist arrests and media closures. Azerbaijan Ties: Presidential adviser Oktay Saral resigned after criticizing restrictions on religious clothing in Azerbaijani schools, reportedly on Erdoğan’s instructions.

Azerbaijan Ties: President Erdoğan dismissed adviser Oktay Saral after comments criticizing Azerbaijan’s school headscarf rules strained relations between the two allies. Ankara is seeking to repair ties ahead of a regional summit. Budget Debate: The DEM Party launched a campaign calling for a 2027 budget focused on bread, peace and justice, taking local concerns about rising costs and jobs to Parliament and the streets. Defense Pact: Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee is set to debate ratification of the Mecca defense agreement with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Defense Minister Yaşar Güler says Türkiye does not plan to fight Yemen’s Houthis under the pact. Press Freedom: Protests in Istanbul and Ankara have highlighted anger over journalist arrests and media shutdowns. Mediterranean Dispute: Libya’s eastern parliament backed a maritime deal with Türkiye, intensifying objections from Greece and Egypt. Ankara calls the agreement legitimate and says it is discussing Egypt’s concerns. Regional Diplomacy: Yemen’s foreign minister praised Türkiye’s role after talks with Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan on security and the conflict.

Press Freedom: Journalists’ groups marched in 10 Turkish cities against censorship and arrests, while reports described thousands protesting media crackdowns and newsroom closures. Domestic Politics: Turkey jailed 15 more people in an expanding investment-fund scandal, bringing the reported total to 114; an opposition mayor and his son were also jailed in a corruption probe. Regional Diplomacy: Istanbul hosted talks on Middle East tensions, with Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warning that renewed strikes on Iran could widen the conflict and urging diplomacy. Eastern Mediterranean: Libya’s eastern parliament approved a maritime deal with Türkiye, deepening a dispute with Greece, Egypt and the EU; Ankara says it is legitimate and is consulting Egypt over its concerns. Defence Policy: Türkiye says it does not expect combat with Yemen’s Houthis under its defence pact with Saudi Arabia, and will consider any military support after parliament ratifies the agreement.

Press Freedom: Thousands protested in Istanbul and Ankara against journalist arrests, media shutdowns and state takeovers. The journalists’ union says 11 reporters have been jailed in two months. Regional Diplomacy: Istanbul talks brought European and Middle Eastern ministers together to urge restraint over Iran. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warned fresh strikes could widen the conflict and called for diplomacy. Eastern Mediterranean: Libya’s eastern parliament ratified a maritime deal with Türkiye, drawing objections from Greece and Egypt. Tripoli says it is ready to address Cairo’s concerns, while Ankara has proposed further talks. Economy: The central bank cut its benchmark rate to 36%. S&P says Türkiye’s policy shift remains on track, but slower disinflation and the approaching election could test monetary discipline. Canada Ties: Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit launched a strategic partnership with Türkiye covering trade, defence and energy.

Istanbul Diplomacy: Türkiye hosted foreign ministers from the R4 group and European powers, who urged diplomacy and warned that renewed strikes on Iran could widen the war. Talks covered Hormuz, Yemen and regional security. New Partnerships: Mark Carney’s first official visit to Türkiye ended with a strategic partnership on trade, energy and defence; the countries also agreed to pursue free-trade talks. Defence Ties: Pakistan has ratified the Mecca defence pact with Türkiye and Saudi Arabia, while Ankara says it has no plan to join combat against the Houthis. Mediterranean Tensions: Libya’s eastern parliament backed a maritime deal with Türkiye, drawing objections from Greece and Egypt. Domestic Politics: Rights groups and journalists report mounting pressure on the opposition and media, including a fresh ruling-party lawsuit against BirGün and continued detentions in corruption probes.

Mine Disaster: Three miners were killed and five injured in a gas explosion at a private coal mine in Zonguldak. Prosecutors and mining engineers are investigating the cause. Regional Diplomacy: At talks in Istanbul with European and Middle Eastern counterparts, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warned that renewed strikes on Iran would widen the conflict and urged diplomacy. Ministers also condemned Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories and called for a two-state solution. Defense Ties: Defense Minister Yaşar Güler said Türkiye would not fight Yemen’s Houthis under its defense pact with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan; the agreement is awaiting parliamentary ratification. Canada Partnership: President Erdoğan and Prime Minister Mark Carney launched a strategic partnership covering trade, defense and energy, and agreed to begin free-trade negotiations. Mediterranean Dispute: Ankara says it is open to discussions with Egypt and Italy over Libya’s newly approved maritime agreement, which Greece, Egypt and EU members have rejected.

Istanbul Diplomacy: Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan is hosting the first talks between the R4 group—Türkiye, Egypt, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia—and the E3 powers Britain, France and Germany. The agenda includes Gaza, Yemen, the Strait of Hormuz and the Ukraine war. Canada Partnership: President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Prime Minister Mark Carney launched a strategic partnership covering defence, energy and trade, with free-trade negotiations due to begin in November. Carney said Canadian firm AtkinsRéalis now has “good chances” of partnering on Türkiye’s next nuclear plant. Fund Repayments: Parliament passed a law setting rules for payments to investors locked out of troubled funds, including interim payouts of up to 1 million liras. Larger investors still face uncertainty over how much they will recover. Mediterranean Tensions: Libya’s eastern parliament approved a maritime deal with Türkiye, drawing objections from Greece, Egypt, Israel and the EU. Ankara says the agreement is legitimate. Monetary Policy: The central bank cut its benchmark rate by one percentage point to 36%, its first reduction since January, as inflation eased. Defence Cooperation: Türkiye, Qatar, Pakistan and Indonesia signed a pact on joint defence production, research and training; it does not create a mutual-defence obligation.

Canada-Türkiye Ties: President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Prime Minister Mark Carney launched a strategic partnership in Ankara, opening the way for free-trade talks and deeper defence, energy and transport ties. They aim to grow trade toward $10 billion. Defence Cooperation: Türkiye, Qatar, Pakistan and Indonesia signed a memorandum to expand joint military production, training and research. Mediterranean Dispute: Libya’s eastern parliament approved a maritime deal with Türkiye, prompting objections from the EU, Greece and Egypt; Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan called the agreement legitimate. Domestic Affairs: Parliament passed a law allowing interim payments of up to 1 million lira to investors affected by the fund scandal and enabling authorities to recover losses from those responsible. The central bank also cut its policy rate by one percentage point to 36%, its first reduction since January. Regional Diplomacy: Ankara will host European and Middle Eastern foreign ministers in Istanbul for talks on Gaza, Yemen, the Strait of Hormuz and Ukraine.

Canada-Türkiye Ties: Prime Minister Mark Carney is in Ankara for the first dedicated bilateral visit by a Canadian premier, with talks with President Erdoğan expected to cover trade, defence and energy cooperation. Eastern Mediterranean: Libya’s eastern parliament has ratified its maritime deal with Türkiye, prompting all 27 EU members, Greece, Egypt and Israel to condemn it. Ankara calls the agreement legitimate; Washington urged negotiations without taking a position. Defence Partnerships: Türkiye, Qatar, Pakistan and Indonesia signed a pact aimed at joint weapons production and technology cooperation. Separately, Ankara has moved a Saudi defence agreement to parliament for approval of a possible troop deployment. Press Freedom: Concerns over media restrictions are mounting as journalist İsmail Arı faces arrest on disinformation charges and an opposition TV station’s owner has had a social media account blocked after a state takeover.

Eastern Mediterranean Dispute: Ankara is defending Libya’s parliament’s approval of the 2019 maritime deal, which Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan called a diplomatic success. All 27 EU states rejected it, saying it violates third countries’ rights; Egypt, Greece, Cyprus and Israel also object. Defence Ties: Türkiye has sent its mutual-defence pact with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan to parliament for ratification. Officials say approval could pave the way for a mandate to deploy personnel to Saudi Arabia. Türkiye, Qatar, Pakistan and Indonesia also signed a separate defence cooperation agreement in Doha. Regional Security: Defence Minister Yaşar Güler says Turkish forces will remain in Syria and Iraq until Ankara’s border-security conditions are met. Domestic Politics: A widening investment-fund scandal has led to new arrest orders, while journalist İsmail Arı has been formally arrested on disinformation charges. Azerbaijan Relations: Erdoğan spoke with President Ilham Aliyev and invited him to the Organization of Turkic States summit in Ankara.

Eastern Mediterranean: Libya’s eastern parliament unanimously ratified its 2019 maritime deal with Türkiye, reversing years of opposition. Ankara welcomed the move, while Greece, Cyprus and the EU called the pact unlawful and said it infringes their rights. Defence Ties: Türkiye has sent its mutual-defence pact with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan to parliament for ratification. Ankara also expects to sign a defence-industry cooperation deal with Qatar, Pakistan and Indonesia. Canada Visit: Prime Minister Mark Carney is due in Ankara for the first dedicated bilateral visit by a Canadian premier, with defence, energy and trade cooperation on the agenda. The visit comes amid Canadian concern over Türkiye’s crackdown on LGBTQ+ and HIV advocacy groups. Security Cooperation: Turkish ministers signed a police cooperation plan with Belgium and urged action against groups Ankara labels terrorist, alongside progress on extradition requests. Energy and Trade: Türkiye aims to meet about 70% of its energy needs from renewables by 2040 and plans $20 billion in energy-efficiency investment by 2030. Ankara is also pressing for Turkish automakers to be included in the EU’s proposed “Made in EU” rules.

Mediterranean Dispute: Libya’s eastern parliament unanimously ratified its 2019 maritime deal with Türkiye, reversing its earlier rejection and giving Ankara a strategic boost. The EU, Greece and Cyprus condemned the move and said the agreement was invalid. Regional Security: Türkiye has sent its mutual-defence pact with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan to parliament for ratification as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia intensify. Defence Minister Yaşar Güler said Turkish forces will remain in Iraq and Syria until border security conditions are met. Media Freedom: The takeover of opposition broadcaster Halk TV and court-ordered blocks on reports about a major investment-fund scandal have heightened concerns over pressure on independent media.

Market Turmoil: Erdoğan removed capital-markets regulator chief Mahmut Sütcü and named a new deputy finance minister as authorities investigate a fund crisis affecting about 455,000 investors. Media and Opposition: Halk TV’s seizure and halted broadcasts, court-ordered blocks on reports about the scandal, and a journalist’s jailing deepen concerns over pressure on critical voices; police also detained an opposition district mayor in a corruption probe. EU Security Talks: Hakan Fidan, joined by the interior and justice ministers, is in Brussels for talks on counterterrorism, migration and judicial cooperation, with meetings planned with EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. Regional Policy: Erdoğan says Türkiye has avoided being drawn into surrounding conflicts through restraint, as Ankara faces rising regional tensions and scrutiny over its defence pact with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Istanbul Floods: Deadly storms that inundated Istanbul and neighbouring provinces have renewed questions about urban planning and flood preparedness.

Media Crackdown: Authorities seized opposition broadcaster Halk TV, halted its broadcasts and installed a state-appointed trustee. Journalist Mehmet Yılmaz was also jailed over alleged Gülen links, renewing concern over pressure on independent media. Market Scandal: The capital-markets regulator’s chief resigned as investigations into troubled investment funds widened; courts also blocked access to 13 reports about the scandal. Kurdish Peace Process: DEM Party deputy Gülistan Kılıç Koçyiğit said a planned 60% rise in defence spending clashes with peace efforts, calling for budget priorities to reflect social needs. The party is also urging its municipalities to seek Kurdish-language units. Regional Tensions: Erdoğan said Türkiye had resisted provocations and stayed out of nearby conflicts. A dispute over Azerbaijan’s school headscarf rules is testing ties, though officials on both sides have urged restraint. Political Outlook: Erdoğan’s advisers have pointed to a possible March or April 2028 election, which could clear the way for him to seek another term.

Energy Security: Türkiye will receive an unspecified share of Russian diesel under a supply arrangement linked to Donald Trump’s deal with Moscow, Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said. Ankara also plans a second Black Sea gas platform for 2028. Parliament: Lawmakers are set to debate interim repayments for investors in liquidated funds, as investigations into a major fund scandal continue. Political Stakes: Erdoğan faces a busy week, including a key speech and a visit by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. Reports also point to Ankara weighing an early 2028 election that could allow Erdoğan to run again. Media and Opposition: The government’s takeover of opposition-aligned broadcaster Halk TV and arrests in an Ankara corruption probe have sharpened concerns over pressure on opposition figures and media. Regional Tensions: Ankara is challenging Greece and Cyprus over undersea cable projects as the Great Sea Interconnector prepares to resume surveys.

Energy Security: Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar says Türkiye expects a share of Russian diesel covered by a Moscow-Washington deal. The country’s first floating gas platform is also heading to the Black Sea, with a second planned for 2028. Border Security: Displaced villagers in Iraq’s Duhok region say PKK fighters’ withdrawal alone won’t let them return; they also want Turkish forces to leave. Domestic Politics: Erdoğan faces a packed week, including his first parliamentary address in 119 days and a visit from Canada’s Mark Carney. Parliament is preparing a committee to monitor PKK disarmament, as reports of an early 2028 election raise questions about Erdoğan’s path to another term. Media and Opposition: Authorities have taken control of opposition-aligned Halk TV after a police raid, renewing concerns over pressure on critical media. Regional Ties: Ankara-Baku tensions over Azerbaijan’s school headscarf restrictions persist despite Erdoğan’s Independence Restoration Day message. Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erhürman says political equality must be accepted before substantive Cyprus talks can begin.