AGP Executive Report

Eurofighter Training: Turkey says the practical phase of Eurofighter pilot training in the UK starts Sept. 7, after theoretical work began in August, with flights lasting eight months. Mecca Defense Pact: Ankara’s foreign minister and Saudi/Pakistani counterparts met in Istanbul to set a framework for collective defense and defense-tech cooperation under the “Mecca” agreement. Syria Border & SDF: Turkey denies claims that foreign fighters linked to the dissolved SDF will leave Syria or enter Türkiye, stressing “one state, one army” and monitoring integration. Kyrenia Ferry Disaster: Northern Cyprus ferry sinking response continues as a tenth body is recovered; 18 people remain unaccounted for and search efforts run 24/7. Istanbul Municipality Probe: Turkish police detained 12 in a corruption probe targeting İstanbul Metropolitan Municipality, tied to allegations of bid-rigging and public losses. Gülen Crackdown Assessment: A new report argues Europe’s asylum assessments may misread Turkey’s Gülen crackdown, saying lower prosecution numbers can reflect changed targeting. EU Budget Clash: Ankara condemned an EU plan to fund a monument aimed at defaming the Turkish Armed Forces in Cyprus. Black Sea Security: Turkey denies SDF-linked foreign fighters will be allowed in, while also facing wider regional security pressures.

AI Governance: Türkiye will mandate basic AI literacy training for all civil servants, with role-based e-learning, micro-certificates, and ministry “AI portfolio” managers—plus roadmaps and pilots via the e-Government gateway. Maritime Safety: A Turkish cargo ship sank after colliding with a tanker off Istanbul; authorities say the sinking was rapid and no survivors have been found, while a prosecutor’s probe is underway. Cyprus Ferry Disaster: Search teams recovered another body after a ferry capsized off Northern Cyprus, with the death toll rising and deep-sea drones surveying the wreck. Aegean Tensions: Turkish media escalated attacks on Greece after Erdoğan renewed warnings over Aegean island militarisation and Athens’ Israel ties. Aviation Risk in War Zones: Ukraine warned airlines to avoid Russian airspace as drone threats grow; foreign carriers, including Pegasus and Turkish Airlines, began suspending or cutting Russia flights. Eurasian Diplomacy: Erdoğan said Türkiye is considering full SCO membership, stressing it would not mean breaking with the West. Regional Security Deals: Greece signed a major Israeli air-defence agreement (“Achilles Shield”), a move Ankara frames as part of a broader anti-Turkey security posture.

SCO Pivot: President Erdoğan said Türkiye would consider full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, stressing it would not mean breaking with the West or NATO. Israel-Syria Tensions: Israel’s strikes on Syria’s Abu al-Duhur airbase and the wider dispute over Ankara’s growing role in rebuilding/training Syrian forces keep the region on edge, with Israeli officials also reporting a drop in West Bank settler-violence incidents while enforcement ramps up. Black Sea Shipping Risk: Erdoğan warned that security for civilian maritime transport in the Black Sea is crucial as drone-related threats push ships to adopt improvised protective measures. Aviation Disruptions: After Zelenskyy warned Russian airspace is unsafe due to drones, Pegasus cancelled/turned back multiple Russia flights, while Ukraine formally notified ICAO that Russia’s airspace is unsafe for civilian aviation. Maritime Disaster: A Turkish cargo ship sank after a collision off Istanbul; 10 crew are missing. Regional Diplomacy: Pakistan’s FO said it remains engaged despite Middle East tensions, while the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement is framed as a deterrence-and-deescalation framework. Business & Connectivity: AirAsia and Pegasus launched a codeshare linking Asia-Europe via Istanbul, with early routes including Ankara and Istanbul’s Sabiha Gökçen hub. Armenia-Turkey Track: An Armenian-Turkish business forum is set for early October in Armenia.

SCO Diplomacy and Energy: President Erdoğan wrapped up the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Bishkek with bilateral talks, where Putin called Turkey a “privileged partner” and both sides highlighted progress on Russia’s Akkuyu nuclear plant, including plans to discuss additional reactors after the first unit starts operating. Black Sea Shipping Pressure: Turkey-linked carriers have suspended Russia-bound port calls as Black Sea attacks intensify, with Akkon Lines and Arkas halting services after drone strikes damaged vessels and raised crew and cargo risk. Regional Security Tensions: Israel’s repeated strikes in Syria—aimed by Tel Aviv at preventing Turkish deployments—are testing the new Syrian leadership’s strategy of rebuilding state capacity while avoiding direct confrontation. Ankara Domestic Watch: Turkey declared the Deveboynu Peninsula near Lake Van its 54th national park to boost ecotourism under the “terror-free Türkiye” framing. Human Rights Claim: Migrants in Turkey allege hospitals are holding newborns and mothers until full payment is made, raising legal and access-to-care concerns.

Nuclear Energy Diplomacy: President Erdoğan said Turkey will expand nuclear cooperation with Russia, pointing to new power-plant steps alongside Akkuyu as Rosatom nears completion—another signal of Ankara’s deepening ties with Moscow. Regional Security & Alliances: Erdoğan used the SCO summit to frame the Turkey-Saudi-Pakistan “Mecca Defense Alliance” as a stabilizing force, while Armenia’s Pashinyan stressed multipolar, multi-vector diplomacy and building interstate ties with Turkey and Azerbaijan. Eastern Mediterranean Tensions: Greece challenged a Turkish NAVTEX after a Turkish research vessel began work near Kastellorizo, with Athens saying the Turkish station lacked authority and that the area falls under Greek continental shelf rules. Energy Deal with Saudi Arabia: Turkey ratified an agreement guaranteeing Saudi solar projects with euro-denominated offtake and price floors, including €47.50/MWh for the first five years, as part of a broader 5-GW rollout. Turkey-Russia Ceasefire Call: Russia and Turkey backed a ceasefire push for the Persian Gulf to restart diplomacy toward a comprehensive peace framework. Archaeology in Southeast Türkiye: A new 8,800–8,900-year-old copper-working workshop was uncovered in Diyarbakır, highlighting early production technologies. Sports (Turkey in focus): Turkey’s women’s team beat Germany in World Cup warmups, adding to the tournament buzz.

Mecca Defense Alliance: Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan held the first Strategic Political and Defence Committee meeting in Istanbul, formally naming the pact the “Makkah Defence Alliance,” setting up a Riyadh secretariat and confirming Pakistan will provide the first secretary general for three years, with talks focused on institutional steps and a roadmap for potential new members. Israel-Greece Air Defense: Turkish media and analysts renewed criticism of Greece’s “Achilles Shield” deal with Israel, arguing it is designed to counter threats from Turkey and Iran and could involve deployments around Cyprus and the Aegean. Turkey’s Regional Messaging: President Erdoğan said Turkey is “no longer the old Turkey,” stressing stronger deterrence and defense-industry capacity while attacking Zionism as a “genocidal ideology” and calling for Muslim unity. Cyprus Ferry Disaster: Search and rescue continued after a ferry capsized off northern Cyprus, with at least 8 dead and 17–20 missing reported; the captain was detained and ordered into custody as divers prepare to retrieve data from the wreck. SCO Summit in Bishkek: At the SCO summit, PM Modi urged members to dismantle the full “ecosystem” of terrorism and called for dialogue over battlefield solutions, while Modi and Xi Jinping were seen walking side by side at the opening.

Cyprus Ferry Disaster: Turkey’s deep-sea rescue ship TCG Isin is heading to northern Cyprus to help recover victims after the Filo Jet capsized, with the death toll at eight and the missing revised to 20; Turkish Cypriot authorities say divers will reach the wreck at depth and the captain and crew have been detained pending negligence charges. Regional Security Architecture: Ankara is positioning the new “Makkah Defence Alliance” as expandable and not aimed at any country, after Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan moved from a declaration to institutional steps—setting up a Riyadh secretariat and naming Pakistan’s first secretary general. SCO Summit Diplomacy: President Erdoğan is in Bishkek for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit as China, Russia and India press for deeper non-Western cooperation; Modi urged Putin to end the Ukraine war, while Iran’s Pezeshkian called for peace and backed the Mecca pact’s unity logic. Israel-Greece Military Deal: Israel and Greece signed the €3.5bn “Achilles Shield” air-defense package, with Israeli officials linking it to countering regional threats including Turkey’s growing activity. Ankara Watchpoints: Turkey’s foreign ministry also signaled it rejects framing the Mecca pact as a bloc against others, even as Israel-Turkey tensions keep rising around Syria and maritime moves.

Cyprus Ferry Disaster: A high-speed ferry (Filo Jet/Filo Denizcilik) capsized off Kyrenia in Northern Cyprus with about 270 aboard; at least 8 died and 17–18 were reported missing as searches resumed, while the captain and seven crew were arrested and authorities said a black box recovery is planned. PKK Disarmament Process: Ankara is preparing the next phase of PKK disarmament under a new law, with legal relief only after security agencies verify full weapon handovers and the MGK confirms the assessment. Regional Security/Mecca Pact: Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are set for the first defence pact committee meeting in Istanbul to review progress under the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, while Bangladesh signals it sees “no risk” in joining if invited. Middle East Arms & Drones: A new analysis says Turkish-made drones are spreading across the Arab world, with multiple Gulf and North Africa states acquiring or producing Baykar systems. SCO Summit in Kyrgyzstan: Xi, Putin and Modi are gathering for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Bishkek, with Turkey expected to attend despite not being a member. Black Sea Shipping Pressure: Turkish shipowners warn that escalating attacks tied to the Ukraine war are pushing costs up and forcing vessels out of service, raising bankruptcy fears.

Cyprus Crisis: A passenger ferry (FILOJET) traveling from Kyrenia (Northern Cyprus) to Tasucu in Turkey capsized shortly after departure, with reports of at least 7 dead and 23 missing; 237 were rescued as Turkish and Turkish Cypriot coast guard, navy, helicopters and vessels joined the search, while Turkish Cypriot authorities detained the captain and crew and said the ship sank to about 514 metres. Regional Security: Turkey is set to offer mediation on Ukraine during Erdogan-Putin summit talks in Bishkek, with Ankara positioning itself as a facilitator on Ukraine and Black Sea issues. Defense Diplomacy: Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan will hold the first ministerial meeting of their Mecca Joint Defence Agreement in Istanbul on Monday, with foreign and defence ministers and military chiefs attending and the pact treating attacks on any signatory as attacks on all. Middle East Tensions: Erdogan’s latest sharp rhetoric against Israel—calling it “addicted to war” and “genocidal”—drew immediate Israeli backlash, as Ankara and Jerusalem trade accusations over Gaza and Syria.

Turkey–Somalia Security: Turkish and Somali forces freed the hijacked MV Lutuf off Puntland after a 10-day operation that killed 14 pirates, with Mogadishu saying continuous pressure forced the remaining attackers to abandon the vessel. Regional Water Politics: Iraq’s ministry says Euphrates flows from Syria to Iraq quadrupled to 680 cubic meters per second, tied to new understandings on releases and a minimum flow requirement at the Turkey-Syria border. Diplomacy in Syria: Turkey’s AKP spokesperson Omer Çelik announced Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa will visit Turkey later this month for the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, while Russia’s Lavrov said a Syria constitutional committee is close to being formed. Energy Cooperation: Erdoğan approved a Turkey–Saudi renewable energy framework, including two 1,000MW solar plants in Sivas and Karaman and a further 3,000MW pipeline. Greece–Aegean Tension: Greece rejected Ankara’s latest Aegean sovereignty claims over a new spatial planning framework, calling them unfounded and non-negotiable. Ankara–Ukraine Row: Turkey summoned Ukraine’s ambassador after attacks on two Turkish-operated ships in the Black Sea, warning against further shellings and for safe navigation.

Black Sea Diplomacy: Turkey summoned Ukraine’s ambassador after two Turkish-operated vessels were hit by drones near Tuapse, warning Kyiv to protect safety of life, navigation and the marine environment. Kurdish Peace Process: Parliament’s “Framework Law” debate is turning on the next steps for Abdullah Öcalan’s legal status and physical freedom, with DEM MP Sarıtaş saying it’s the most concrete move so far and PUK officials welcoming Öcalan’s “Democratic Unity Government” proposal. Regional Security: PJAK said PKK/KCK disbandment has “no direct connection” to its own operations, while an Iran-backed Iraqi group set 10 conditions for disarmament including full US withdrawal and calls for ending PKK and Turkish presence in northern Iraq. Domestic Justice & Rights: Courts jailed 81 in a financial-crimes probe tied to the Süleymanlılar religious community and ordered the seizure of Ekrem İmamoğlu’s book copies. Economy & Finance: Halkbank secured $1.1bn after a US case ended, while Turkey’s tourism “value for money” is under pressure as costs rise for both foreigners and Turks. Sports & Society: Saturday Mothers marked enforced disappearances in Istanbul, and Turkish comedian Deniz Göktaş was rearrested minutes after a release order.

Gaza Diplomacy Under Strain: A senior envoy to the Board of Peace warned Gaza’s ceasefire could collapse if Israel and Palestinian groups miss commitments under a proposed roadmap, with an international stabilization force planned and Türkiye reportedly kept out after Israel vetoed Ankara’s role. Turkey-Greece Aegean Row: Greece sent Ankara a diplomatic note over Turkey’s new “marine parks,” arguing the move is illegal and can’t create rights beyond territorial waters; Ankara says the Greek framework has “no legal consequences” and reiterates its sovereignty claims. Regional Security & Hormuz: Iran’s top security official said Tehran and Oman agreed on a temporary corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, but full reopening depends on Washington meeting Iranian conditions, especially ending wars in Lebanon and Gaza. Islamic Unity Messaging: President Erdoğan used the Mawlid event to intensify anti-Israel rhetoric, calling Zionism “genocidal” and urging Islamic unity, while comparing Gaza and Lebanon’s suffering to Hitler and Pol Pot. SCO Summit Watch: Putin and Xi are set to meet in Bishkek at the SCO summit, with leaders including Erdoğan and Iran’s president also expected to discuss regional security and Armenia-EU issues. Ankara Legal/Detention: Turkey is set to try a Kyrgyz citizen detained in Ankara in a FETÖ-linked case, with a September court hearing scheduled.

Energy & Investment: President Erdoğan approved a Türkiye–Saudi intergovernmental renewable energy framework, paving the way for 1,000MW solar plants in Sivas and Karaman’s Taşeli and a second phase adding 3,000MW, with 30-year operating terms. AI Governance: Türkiye will set up a National Artificial Intelligence Board chaired by Erdoğan to steer the 2026-2030 AI plan, backed by an ethics board and a transparency portal that keeps personal data and trade secrets protected. Regional Security (Syria): Syria’s President al-Sharaa appointed Mazloum Abdi (former SDF leader) as a presidential adviser, following the SDF’s dissolution and integration into state structures. Gaza Diplomacy: Board of Peace envoy Nikolay Mladenov warned that failure to follow the Gaza roadmap could collapse the ceasefire, while noting Türkiye’s non-participation in the planned International Stabilization Force after an Israeli veto. Israel-Turkey Tensions: Erdoğan urged Muslim unity against Israel’s “provocations,” repeating that Türkiye won’t rely on outside powers for regional peace. US-Türkiye Defense Lobbying: Ankara signed a $2.4m, one-year lobbying deal to re-enter the F-35 program, using Trump-linked contacts. Aviation Safety: Cyprus and EU air traffic unions demanded urgent action after a near-collision involving a Turkish A400M allegedly operating without proper radio contact near the Nicosia FIR.

Israel-Syria Tensions: Turkey’s UN envoy Ahmet Yıldız condemned Israel’s “relentless” strikes on Syria, calling them violations of sovereignty and a threat to stabilization, while also welcoming the US decision to remove Damascus from its state sponsors of terrorism list. Syria Peace Process: Ankara reiterated that it wants de-escalation and compliance with the 1974 disengagement framework after Israel hit the Abu al-Duhur airbase, an allegation Ankara and Damascus deny. SDF Dissolution & Kurdish Integration: Commentary and interviews focused on the SDF’s move toward weapons handover and integration into a unified Syria, with Ankara-linked officials urging proof on the ground and warning against “provocations.” Regional Security Pacts: The “Mecca Pact” is expanding in the spotlight: Bangladesh said it would consider joining if invited, while Pakistan and Kuwait signed a new defence protocol to deepen training, capacity building and border management cooperation. Iran Pressure & Hormuz Talks: Iran’s president urged Muslim states not to allow their territory for attacks, as an Istanbul foreign-ministers meeting on Aug. 30 is set to discuss Hormuz navigation and regional security. Markets Watch: A Reuters market brief flagged September risks tied to debt, inflation and Hormuz uncertainty, with investors tracking Fed messaging and regional pipeline plans.

Syria Peace Track: Turkey welcomed the SDF’s dissolution and said it strengthens Syrian unity, while Ankara links the move to its “Terror-Free Region” goal and the PKK peace process at home. Israel-Turkey Tensions: Israel and Syria are reportedly trying to ease friction after strikes near the Abu al-Duhur airbase, with U.S.-backed contacts aimed at preventing a wider clash involving Turkey. Regional Diplomacy: President Erdoğan held calls with DR Congo and Rwanda leaders on cooperation and regional peace, signaling Ankara’s push for broader security and investment ties. Human Rights: A new Turkish law expanding life sentences for children aged 15+ drew sharp condemnation from rights groups over trials as adults and long detention terms. Legal Pressure in Europe: Philanthropist Osman Kavala again demanded release after an ECtHR ruling criticizing Turkey’s handling of his case. Domestic Politics: Turkish prosecutors opened an investigation into British economist Timothy Ash for insulting Erdoğan. Foreign Policy/Trade: Turkey said it welcomes the U.S. decision to remove Syria from the terrorism list, framing it as a step toward Syria’s reintegration.

Education & PKK Disarmament: Turkey’s Education Ministry issued a circular ahead of the Sept. 14 school term, rolling out “law of brotherhood” activities tied to the PKK/KCK disarmament framework and tightening campus security, including controlled entry rules and limits on private mock exams and costly materials. Counterterror & Peace Process: President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan reiterated Ankara’s push for a “terror-free Türkiye” after parliament approved the next legal stage of the peace initiative, describing it as enabling disarmament rather than a blanket amnesty. Regional Security: Ankara is watching rising Israel-Greece-Turkey tensions as Israel strikes in Syria continue, while diplomatic efforts try to prevent a wider clash. Mecca Pact Diplomacy: Commentary and reporting focus on how the Turkey-Pakistan-Saudi “Mecca” defense deal could reshape deterrence and alignments beyond U.S. guarantees. International Spotlight: The U.S. paused immigrant visa processing nationwide, with interviews expected to resume later this year. Culture & Heritage: Archaeologists in southeastern Türkiye unearthed an 11,000-year-old stone sculpture of a human seated on a leopard at Karahantepe.