AGP Executive Report

Turkey–Israel Diplomacy: Israel appointed Dr. Joel Lion as chargé d’affaires in Ankara, while its embassy stays largely closed for security reasons, underscoring how Gaza-era tensions continue to shape official contacts. Middle East Security: Pakistan warned Iran to rein in the Houthis after attacks on Saudi Arabia, saying any spillover could activate the Saudi–Pakistan–Türkiye “Mecca” defence pact. Regional Diplomacy on Gaza Settlements: Turkey joined a group of Muslim-majority foreign ministries welcoming the UK ban on imports from Israeli settlements and urging other states to follow suit and demand accountability. Ankara Politics & Local Governance: In Istanbul’s Üsküdar, prosecutors opened an investigation into New Party officials over alleged pressure on council members after a CHP-to-AK Party switch was disputed. Economy & Investment Ties: Ankara and Riyadh are pushing a higher-level economic partnership, moving from trade toward long-term industrial cooperation in energy, defence, tourism and logistics.

Saudi-Iran Tensions: Pakistan delivered a Saudi warning to Iran to rein in its Yemeni Houthi allies after major attacks on Saudi cities and an airbase, with Islamabad stressing any spillover could trigger a joint security arrangement involving Riyadh, Ankara and Islamabad. Regional Security Pact: The same “Mecca” defense framework is now at the center of debate as Pakistan says collective defense could become operational if Yemen conflict reaches Saudi territory. West Bank Sanctions Push: Turkey joined UAE, Qatar, Egypt, Indonesia, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan in welcoming the UK’s ban on imports from illegal Israeli settlements and restrictions on related services, urging wider international action under international law. US-Iran Pressure: The US expanded aviation sanctions, targeting dozens of Iranian airlines and related intermediaries under its “Operation Economic Outcast,” as oil and shipping risks keep rising. Ankara-Local Governance: President Erdoğan met Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş to discuss metro and other capital projects, with Yavaş highlighting transport investments ahead of the NATO summit. Court Update: A Turkish court allowed Kyrgyz citizen Ermek Sabyrzhanov, detained over alleged “Hizmet” links, to return to Kyrgyzstan after a hearing in İzmir. Diplomatic Engagement: Erdoğan also met US Ambassador Tom Barrack and Rep. Darrell Issa in Ankara as talks on Syria and Iraq intensify. Greece-Turkey Friction: Greece vowed to deepen defense and technology cooperation with Israel while warning it remains ready for any scenario with Türkiye, as tensions over maritime issues continue.

Houthi-Saudi Tensions: Ankara condemned Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, saying they endangered civilians and escalated the Yemen conflict, while urging the group to stop and backing a lasting political settlement. Israel-Palestinian Policy: Türkiye welcomed a 12-country push to restrict trade with illegal Israeli settlements in the West Bank, calling for similar steps to protect the two-state solution. Syria’s Kurdish Rights: As the SDF integrates into Syria’s government forces, Kurds across Syria and neighboring countries are debating whether dropping the “armed struggle” will safeguard Kurdish language and political rights. Turkey-Greece Friction: Greece’s Mitsotakis toughened his tone toward Turkey after criticism at home, stressing dialogue but warning against “yielding” or tolerating faits accomplis. Kurdish Peace Process: KCK member Mustafa Karasu said attacks targeting Öcalan and a recent focus on Alevis are meant to sabotage the peace process, arguing Kurdish Alevis are integral to it. Ankara’s Diplomacy: Turkish FM Hakan Fidan met US and OTS officials in Ankara ahead of the OTS summit, discussing preparations and strategy for 2027-2031. Culture & Heritage: Turkey’s Presidential Symphony Orchestra marked its 200th anniversary with an international tour culminating at New York’s Carnegie Hall in 2027, while Pompeiopolis in Kastamonu yielded 105 square meters of well-preserved fourth-century mosaics and an Eros head. Public Safety: Northern Cyprus said a private deep-water salvage team will join the search for the capsized Filo Jet ferry off Kyrenia, as bodies continue to be recovered.

Iran Pressure Escalation: The US Treasury sanctioned 27 Iranian airlines and 36 aviation-sector targets under “Operation Economic Outcast,” warning firms doing business with Iran’s remaining carriers could be cut off from the global financial system. Regional Diplomacy: Ukraine’s Zelensky said he expects to meet Trump on Sept. 20 on anti-ballistic missiles and hinted the next trilateral format talks could be held in the UAE, Switzerland or Turkey. Turkey’s Foreign Policy: FM Hakan Fidan met US Ambassador Tom Barrack and US Rep. Daniel Issa in Ankara, alongside OTS chief Kubanychbek Omuraliev, as Ankara keeps engaging Washington on Syria and Iraq. Defense Industry Spotlight: Turkey’s defense ministry held its weekly briefing at Baykar’s facility, praising the company’s role in intelligence, surveillance and strike capabilities. Human Rights at Home: İHD reported 1,842 torture/ill-treatment cases and 6,719 arbitrary detentions in Turkey in 2025, citing judicial and police pressure on dissent. Palestine Policy: Turkey backed a 12-country push to restrict trade with illegal Israeli settlements in the West Bank.

US-Turkey Sanctions: The US Treasury sanctioned Istanbul-based Golden Global Bank and two subsidiaries over alleged links to Iran’s IRGC-Quds Force, prompting sharp political backlash in Washington and renewed pressure on Turkey’s financial channels. Middle East Diplomacy: President Erdoğan accused Israel of sabotaging the Iran-US Islamabad Memorandum, saying regional and global economies are paying the price for “schemes and provocations.” Eastern Mediterranean Security: Greece, Cyprus and Egypt held a trilateral summit in El Alamein, with Mecca defense cooperation between Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan expected to be discussed as Ankara warns it won’t stay inactive. Syrian Track: Lavrov said Russia, Iran and Turkey are working to keep outside interference away from Syria’s Constitutional Committee process. Counterterror Policing: Turkish police detained nine suspects in Istanbul over alleged Daesh financing networks after MASAK-linked transaction probes and raids. Somalia Maritime Risk: Reports say Somali piracy is surging again, including a recent Turkish-linked tanker incident, raising concerns for shipping lanes. Domestic Peace Process: Former Mardin deputy SG Mustafa Yıldız argued Turkey’s Kurdish peace framework must be built from local participation, not only high-level talks.

Ferry Disaster Update: President Erdoğan said 14 people died and 14 remain missing after the Kyrenia–Tasucu ferry sank, with nine ships and 11 aircraft still searching; eight crew members, including the captain, were detained as investigations continue. Regional Security & Diplomacy: Erdoğan warned Türkiye won’t allow hostile moves to “encircle” the country and said Ankara is supporting search efforts with Northern Cyprus while also pushing broader regional stability. Gaza Stabilization: Kosovo signed an agreement to join the UN-mandated International Stabilization Force in Gaza, while Türkiye said it won’t participate after Israel vetoed Ankara’s involvement. Domestic Politics & Courts: Former PM Ahmet Davutoğlu faced questioning over alleged “insulting Erdoğan” remarks and said he stands by his 2021 comments. Economy & Planning: After a cabinet meeting, Erdoğan flagged COP31 preparations in Antalya (over 100,000 visitors expected) and cited August export records alongside new housing and urban renewal steps. Education Rights: Turkey signaled a reversal on a sudden “guest student” restriction for Armenian citizens in Istanbul’s Armenian schools, after community alarm. International Spotlight: A Jewish–Kurdish relations conference opened in London, aiming to build cooperation between the two diasporas.

Inflation & Growth Roadmap: Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz unveiled Türkiye’s 2027-2029 Medium-Term Program, lifting year-end 2026 inflation to 28.4% (from 16%), cutting growth to 3.3% (from 3.8%), and lowering tourism revenue to $65bn as Middle East tensions add an estimated 7 points to inflation. Defense Spending: Yilmaz also said Türkiye plans to boost defense spending by 229% over three years, aiming for more domestic tech and higher-value production. SME Credit Push: KOSGEB opened the third 2026 application round for its Capacity Development Support Program, offering loans up to 30m liras for eligible SMEs, with applications due Sept. 15. PKK Peace Process Pressure: PKK official Cemil Bayik warned the disarmament process could stall unless Turkey links it to political reforms, criticizing the new surrender-and-integration law as missing clear democratic steps. Greece-Turkey Maritime Tension: Greek PM Mitsotakis reiterated Greece’s right to extend territorial waters to 12 nautical miles, while Turkey protested Greece’s Evros border fence works. Regional Diplomacy: Turkey is seeking to restart Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul, arguing direct dialogue could set conditions for a ceasefire. Gaza Displacement Condemnation: Eight Arab and Muslim countries, including Turkey, condemned Israeli ministers’ calls for forcibly expelling Palestinians from Gaza.

Palestinian Statehood Push: Saudi Arabia and seven other Arab and Muslim countries, including Turkey, condemned Israeli ministers’ Gaza displacement plans and reaffirmed support for an independent Palestinian state on June 4, 1967 lines with East Jerusalem as capital. Turkey-Israel Tensions: A report says Israel is alarmed by a recent dialogue and meeting between a Mossad chief and Syria’s foreign minister, amid claims Ankara may deploy radar and drones in Syria—while both Damascus and Ankara deny any permanent Turkish presence. DEM Party Congress in Ankara: The DEM Party held its 5th ordinary congress; co-chairs Tülay Hatimoğulları and Tuncer Bakırhan were re-elected as the party framed the gathering as preparation for a “major transformation” and a new Democratic Republic Movement. US Sanctions on Turkish Bank: OFAC designated Istanbul-based Golden Global Yatirim Bankasi and two subsidiaries over alleged Iran-linked financial transfers, escalating pressure on Tehran’s access to global markets. Economy Roadmap: Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz unveiled the 2027-2029 medium-term program, lifting 2026 year-end inflation forecast to 28.4% while projecting growth to rise gradually to 5% by 2029, amid geopolitical risk. Energy & Nuclear: Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said Turkey’s first nuclear plant reactor is in intensive testing and will go online soon, while also stressing the need for $80b in electricity infrastructure investment through 2035 and affordable long-term climate finance.

U.S.-Iran Tensions: Turkish diplomacy stayed active as Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Iran’s Abbas Araghchi discussed US-Iran talks, while President Erdoğan told the UAE Türkiye is working to ease U.S.-Iran friction. Sanctions & Finance: Washington sanctioned an Istanbul-based bank and subsidiaries over alleged IRGC-linked transfers, prompting Ankara to push back and seek reassurance after the latest measures. Regional Defence: In Ankara, Pakistan’s Defence and Martyrs’ Day reception highlighted deepening Türkiye-Pakistan ties and praised a “Makkah Defence Alliance” with Saudi Arabia as a deterrence boost. Maritime Safety: Turkey’s navy located the wreck of the Tugberk Imamoglu in the Sea of Marmara after a tanker collision, with 10 crew still missing; families are pressing for answers. Cyprus Crisis: The Kyrenia ferry disaster remains a political flashpoint as the death toll rose and relatives demand full investigations into safety failures. Kurdish Politics: Calls in Sulaymaniyah for Öcalan’s “right to hope” and renewed peace messaging kept the Kurdish issue in focus.

US-Iran Tensions: The U.S. says it struck three Iranian crude oil carriers after CENTCOM reported IRGC ballistic missile launches toward two U.S. Navy warships, warning it will raise the “economic cost” if attacks continue. Sanctions Pressure on Ankara: Washington imposed fresh sanctions on a Turkish bank, accusing it of helping Iran move oil revenue from China to Turkey for conversion into cash and gold, with officials warning more institutions could face penalties. Regional Diplomacy: Armenia’s president says Yerevan is ready to open the border with Turkey “at any moment,” citing steps like the Ani bridge restoration and a business forum while noting a diplomatic pause. Kurdish Politics: HDP former co-chair Selahattin Demirtaş says jailed Selçuk Mızraklı will be released on September 8 after completing his sentence. Maritime Incidents: Turkey’s navy located the wreck of a cargo ship in the Sea of Marmara after a collision near Istanbul, with 10 crew still missing. Cyprus Tragedy: The death toll from a northern Cyprus ferry disaster rose to 13, with 15 still missing as search teams recover remains. Domestic Governance: Erdoğan authorized a 30-year privatization plan for Istanbul’s Bosporus bridges and major highways, shifting operating rights and toll revenue to private operators. Security/Justice: Turkey has begun repatriating 184 Turkish citizens detained in Iraq over alleged ISIL links.

Stray Dog Law Oversight: Turkey’s Interior and Agriculture ministries will send inspectors to all 81 provinces this September to audit municipalities on stray dog collection, shelter standards, sterilization and welfare, with local negligence flagged for penalties. Iran-US Diplomacy: President Erdoğan told UAE leader Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed that Ankara is continuing efforts to ease Iran-US tensions and other regional conflicts, while stressing peace-oriented diplomacy. US Sanctions on Turkish Bank: The US Treasury sanctioned Istanbul’s Golden Global Bank and two subsidiaries over alleged support for Iran’s IRGC-Qods Force, cutting them off from dollar transactions; the bank says the claims are unfounded and plans legal action. Turkey’s Iran Pressure Context: US Vice President Vance said Washington won’t negotiate with Iran until attacks on commercial ships stop, linking talks to Strait of Hormuz security. Regional Defense Realignment: Reports say Ankara is building new alliances after Israeli strikes on Turkish assets in Syria, with closer security cooperation discussed with Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan. Syria Kurds’ Next Step: Mustafa “Mazloum” Abdi called the SDF dissolution “an end and a beginning,” urging Kurds to join drafting Syria’s new constitution. Diplomatic Appointments: Erdoğan appointed new ambassadors to 12 countries and reshuffled senior Foreign Ministry posts. Domestic Justice: An Istanbul court accepted an indictment against comedian Deniz Göktaş over Erdogan jokes, keeping him in custody pending trial. Sports Note: Galatasaray urged to sign Shomurodov immediately after Osimhen’s groin injury.

US-Iran Financial Pressure on Turkey: The US Treasury sanctioned Istanbul’s Golden Global Yatirim Bankasi and two subsidiaries, accusing them of helping Iran’s IRGC-Quds Force move oil revenue via Turkey and access the global financial system, warning more banks could follow. Diplomacy & Regional Security: Iran’s parliament speaker Qalibaf called for a “homegrown” regional security architecture and less reliance on extra-regional powers, framing it as a shift toward cooperation among Muslim neighbors. Turkey-Greece Border Tension: Ankara formally protested Greece’s Evros River border fence extension, saying parts of the works are on Turkish territory amid disputes over the river’s shifting boundary and mapping methods. Human Rights Watch: Turkey’s Human Rights Association (IHD) said its 2025 report documents widespread detentions, torture and ill-treatment, plus restrictions on protests and blocked media access. Domestic Legal Crackdown: An Istanbul court ordered access blocked to at least 21 X accounts over alleged national security targeting, including groups linked to relatives of jailed opposition figures. Aviation Costs: Pegasus said jet fuel prices have not yet been passed to passengers despite a sharp rise in jet fuel spending, citing hedging and budgeting. Sports (Turkey): Galatasaray submitted its Champions League squad featuring Victor Osimhen and Rafael Leão.

Cyprus & EU Funding Row: Turkey’s Foreign Ministry hit back at a European Parliament committee backing EU money for a memorial in Greek Cyprus, saying it would “undermine trust” and target the Turkish Armed Forces. Security in Istanbul: Turkish authorities said a suspected Islamic State member was “neutralized” in an Istanbul police operation, injuring one civilian. Trade Watch: Turkey logged three export highs in August—$23.47bn monthly exports and $280.3bn in the 12-month total—while imports rose faster, widening the trade deficit. Kyrenia Ferry Rescue: Northern Cyprus officials said more bodies are now visible at the Kyrenia ferry wreck; the confirmed death toll reached 10 with 18 still missing. Transport Tech Upgrade: Turkey is overhauling its vehicle inspection system with AI and automation, aiming for a new operator model starting in 2027. Regional Defense Signals: Reports say the U.S. is weighing foreign frigate designs, including Turkey’s Istanbul-class, as shipbuilding delays reshape procurement. Human Rights Pressure: Nobel laureates and European politicians renewed calls for Turkey to release PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan to join the Kurdish peace process.

Eurofighter Training: Turkey says the practical phase of Eurofighter pilot training in the UK starts Sept. 7, after theoretical work began in August, with flights lasting eight months. Mecca Defense Pact: Ankara’s foreign minister and Saudi/Pakistani counterparts met in Istanbul to set a framework for collective defense and defense-tech cooperation under the “Mecca” agreement. Syria Border & SDF: Turkey denies claims that foreign fighters linked to the dissolved SDF will leave Syria or enter Türkiye, stressing “one state, one army” and monitoring integration. Kyrenia Ferry Disaster: Northern Cyprus ferry sinking response continues as a tenth body is recovered; 18 people remain unaccounted for and search efforts run 24/7. Istanbul Municipality Probe: Turkish police detained 12 in a corruption probe targeting İstanbul Metropolitan Municipality, tied to allegations of bid-rigging and public losses. Gülen Crackdown Assessment: A new report argues Europe’s asylum assessments may misread Turkey’s Gülen crackdown, saying lower prosecution numbers can reflect changed targeting. EU Budget Clash: Ankara condemned an EU plan to fund a monument aimed at defaming the Turkish Armed Forces in Cyprus. Black Sea Security: Turkey denies SDF-linked foreign fighters will be allowed in, while also facing wider regional security pressures.

AI Governance: Türkiye will mandate basic AI literacy training for all civil servants, with role-based e-learning, micro-certificates, and ministry “AI portfolio” managers—plus roadmaps and pilots via the e-Government gateway. Maritime Safety: A Turkish cargo ship sank after colliding with a tanker off Istanbul; authorities say the sinking was rapid and no survivors have been found, while a prosecutor’s probe is underway. Cyprus Ferry Disaster: Search teams recovered another body after a ferry capsized off Northern Cyprus, with the death toll rising and deep-sea drones surveying the wreck. Aegean Tensions: Turkish media escalated attacks on Greece after Erdoğan renewed warnings over Aegean island militarisation and Athens’ Israel ties. Aviation Risk in War Zones: Ukraine warned airlines to avoid Russian airspace as drone threats grow; foreign carriers, including Pegasus and Turkish Airlines, began suspending or cutting Russia flights. Eurasian Diplomacy: Erdoğan said Türkiye is considering full SCO membership, stressing it would not mean breaking with the West. Regional Security Deals: Greece signed a major Israeli air-defence agreement (“Achilles Shield”), a move Ankara frames as part of a broader anti-Turkey security posture.

SCO Pivot: President Erdoğan said Türkiye would consider full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, stressing it would not mean breaking with the West or NATO. Israel-Syria Tensions: Israel’s strikes on Syria’s Abu al-Duhur airbase and the wider dispute over Ankara’s growing role in rebuilding/training Syrian forces keep the region on edge, with Israeli officials also reporting a drop in West Bank settler-violence incidents while enforcement ramps up. Black Sea Shipping Risk: Erdoğan warned that security for civilian maritime transport in the Black Sea is crucial as drone-related threats push ships to adopt improvised protective measures. Aviation Disruptions: After Zelenskyy warned Russian airspace is unsafe due to drones, Pegasus cancelled/turned back multiple Russia flights, while Ukraine formally notified ICAO that Russia’s airspace is unsafe for civilian aviation. Maritime Disaster: A Turkish cargo ship sank after a collision off Istanbul; 10 crew are missing. Regional Diplomacy: Pakistan’s FO said it remains engaged despite Middle East tensions, while the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement is framed as a deterrence-and-deescalation framework. Business & Connectivity: AirAsia and Pegasus launched a codeshare linking Asia-Europe via Istanbul, with early routes including Ankara and Istanbul’s Sabiha Gökçen hub. Armenia-Turkey Track: An Armenian-Turkish business forum is set for early October in Armenia.